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I pretty much agree. I hope that Nikon survives as a long-time Nikon user. I am sitting on the fence as far as the Z mount goes. I also expect MFT to survive but with a focus on video with niche players like Blackmagic and with Olympus persevering with cameras more suited to still photography.

Good video. Thanks.


Canon Imaging is only 26% of Canon profits. Canon can invest and push for more mirrorless if they like. Money is not a problem. For Nikon I'm more sceptical.

E N.
Amazon sales rank cannot be considered accurate figures for S1/S1R sales as other authorized dealers like B&H, Adorama, Focus Cameras etc... had the free battery + battery grip offer ($437 MSRP value) until release date April 4th, 2019 that Amazon only offered briefly at the last-minute if at all. Just like now, the $400 off bonus trade-in deal Panasonic offers on the S1/S1R only applies to Adorama, B&H, and Focus Camera, NOT Amazon. Could it be because that's where the bulk of their sales are? Until Tony has official S1/S1R sales figures for the what, roughly 55 days those cameras… Read more »
Why isn't your podcast on Spotify? The problem with supporting their old userbase is that as a company they can only have focus on so many things at the same time, there is a limit to what their engineers can focus on. If they split focus over such a wide range, they will miss out on what is going to take over in the long run. They will be living off their dying lineup; and sony will eat the mirrorless adopters. With time as more and more people move over to mirrorless, the companies that lost focus on the move… Read more »
Quay Hu

Great topic but too soon to tell. Sonys mirrorless lineup didn't truly take off until the Sony A7RII. Also FF mirrorless cameras are way more expensive. The fact a $2000 A7III is number 3 on that list should tell you where the market is going. It would be great to revisit this topic in about 5 years.


Hooooooold the phone!! This is nuts! You're telling me a $350 Rebel outsells a $2500 S1? GET OUTTA TOWN!! Clearly we can only conclude that mirrorless is not going to overtake DSLR.

Tony, this is a ridiculous video. I know it was just something to talk about, but you could have made this same video for horses vs. cars and how much horse ownership already exists, how much horse infrastructure already exists, etc. It's ridiculous.


Just can't get used to the illuminated mini cinema call EVF. My eyes get tired pretty quickly. Also even though they reduced the lag it is still there — even with the latest and greatest Sony. I'll keep my dslr for now and see where this is going.

Cobby1 c -3cccprod

One of the ways that the camera companies, especially Canon and Nikon, are trying to deal with the gray market is to refuse to honor warranties or even repair their cameras if they do not meet purchase criteria. ... Generally, the U.S. will not honor a warranty from outside the country.Oct 29, 2014

Cobby1 c -3cccprod

Amazon Sell Gray Cameras are no Good !

Antti Tapola

Also Justin Beawer bought a new dlsr camera. Oh, hello Justin...! (Justin came just in).

Norman Rand Wolfe
DSLRs will stay around, Canon and Nikon (this corporation will probably be gone by 2025) entered the mirrorless game too late.Sony will probably have 50% of the new "top of the line" camera owners (those that still don't have a system, or that, like me, changed to Sony the moment the Alphas arrived).What huge corporation CEOs didn't predict was that the vast majority of the population would abandon cameras all together... Phones just got too good, too fast, and guess what, almost everyone already has at least one.So, the camera market, in general, is going to crash even harder and… Read more »
Eva PM

I’m happy with my Canon DSLR. Mirrorless is just a phase right now

Tom MacBride

Really a fun show! Lots of production value and information. Happy trails, Cheers!

Troy Diehl

Buy what you want, but I will never go back to DSLR. Mirrorless is where its at

Seb Gibbs

did i miss the list of camera that are predicted to do well?

Seb Gibbs

21:17 When I first came to the camera world, I never understood why so many lens mounts existed and still don't. I'm pretty sure they could standardise down to a total of 4 sizes.


Stagecoaches aren't going anywhere. Cars are too expensive. The wood of the stagecoach is more natural to my eye than this cold metal. And the range of the cars is lower. With my horses I can travel for days on end without looking for a pump.


Tony is such a Cassandra. Nobody liked her either ;). So we will all become Sony or Fuji users?? By the way, about MFT, Tony do you know how many camera manufacturers are supporting the MFT system? Pretty unique that number, wouldn't you say?

Phil Jones65

How to make money on YouTube, wind people up and talk about xyz brand. Cmon guys let's do some real photography or proper review?
This couch stuff is getting "old" fast

Christian on Photography

Tony has more or less the same effect on me like a couple of glasses of red wine.

David Ritter
Wayne Gretzky's famous cliche "I skate to where the puck is going, not where's it's been" certainly applies here. Look closer and you'll see the instant gratification shift has been happening for years now. Digital allowed you to see what you were taking as soon as you took it. DSLRs took things a step further with Live View/Live Mode. It's not surprising that Mirrorless is becoming the new hotness. EVFs are also only going to get better. People simply want instant gratification.And it just so happens the whole camera industry as a whole is down financially too. Canon's president says… Read more »
Mr Brainwashed

I agree Tony. I'm a big Pentax fan but I think they are finished unless they bring out a line of APSC mirrorless like FujiFilm but with ibis and the K mount.

Toms walks and wildlife
Dear, Tony you have killed all the cameras I use . I can see why seeing what you have found. Looking at this like cars ,not everyone drives the same car. I do not have the money to keep up with the latest tech. I keep going outside and keep taking pictures away from people and the screen of my phone . To make good pictures is by practice and more practice as you know. It is not the new button on a camera. Thank you for all the great information that helps me keep up with the many changes.… Read more »
arne niemann
Thanks for the video. I must admit, I was initially concerned when I saw the title. I am too invested to make a change. As a matter of fact, for the past several months, I have been scavenging eBay for high-end D-SLR equipment. I was hoping to capitalize on equipment made available from people making the switch. In the grand scheme of things, there really isn’t that much to choose from. There is a lot of junk but if looking for a good quality, high-end D-SLR or lens, the picking is slim. I believe this coincides and supports your/Tony’s data.… Read more »
I believe there might be one major flaw in your thinking. Somebody that is only going to spend only around $400 to $700 on a new DSLR camera is not going to spend a bunch of money on new lenses. It's like somebody that buys a cheap computer. You know that they're not going to upgrade the RAM or the hard drive. I been debating on upgrading my Nikon D600 for a little over a year now just because I'm really getting tired of caring that kind of weight around with me. With my 28 to 300 lens, it's almost… Read more »
Sean Cook

I love that you just give well-researched opinions regardless of the ire.


Why does this channel feel like a late night shopping program

Jeff Tight
Not questioning your statistics, I'd like to add that I believe you should factor in what kind of consumer is buying which cameras. Clearly, the majority of serious enthusiasts and pros will recommend DSLR's to the largest share of consumers: casual users. Add to that the relative economy of buying crop frame bodies and their associated lens line ups. Segway to history, please consider what was happening in the 1990's into the early 2000's. Digital cameras were where mirrorless is now. So, while I agree with your assessment of today's DSLR/mirrorless state, I believe mirrorless will ramp up more quickly.… Read more »

What Canon could an should do (imo) to address the declining market is to cut down on the f-ton of DSLR (and M mount) models. It sometimes feels like they are trying to create a continuous scale of models from low-end to high-end. Nobody needs that many models and they could spend the money saved on developing them all on developing the ones left a little better.
... Besides, I checked. Our DSLR cameras are certainly still alive and well and the lens family grew again just this month. 😛


Canon and Nikon just have to develop a very good lens adapters for their mirrorless bodies in order to abandon their DSLR's bodies.

Noli Pugay

Tony, I went at photografica Copenhagen to buy Nikon Z7 and it was sold out so I waited for the next batch. I think best place to get stats is B&H and other major camera store... Amazon! you are funny Tony

Geoffrey Byers
I don't see the logic in much of your analysis. You don't have access to any of the sales numbers that the manufacturer's have. For instance only Nikon knows how many Z lenses they have sold since launch. For all you know the number may now represent a significant fraction of all Nikon lens sales. Same issue with Canon M mount — only Canon can see the M mount contribution to the bottom line. That data is not broken out in company reporting. You keep using very derivative sources such as Google searches and Amazon sales, and even DXO numbers (how… Read more »
Brian B
Personally I’m not interested in mirrorless at all. I still love my Canon 6D Mk1. I don’t want an EVF. I don’t want to use my LCD as a viewfinder. I don’t want a ton of bells and whistles. I just want a reliable camera with good low light performance that gets out of the way and makes shooting easy. Plus, old tech has some benefits over new. Analog audio is better if you have a good hifi to hear it. Medium and large format film have qualities even the best digital cameras can’t touch. So film will continue to… Read more »
Josh F
You have to wonder if the mirror-less success is due to size — but will plateau. I can see people with small hands loving them ergonomically, but I have large hands and would never enjoy the mirror-less cameras I've tried. I recently got my first FX format Nikon and just love the way it fits my hands. And, it balances with longer/heavier lenses better than a smaller body camera. Plus, by the time a Sony users adds a converter, to use a Nikon lens, the lens is even more off balance. I bet the decline in DSLR sales will level out… Read more »
John Rayner

When you wonder about a lack of new lenses from Canon and Nikon, I in turn wonder how many more new lenses there can be. Isn’t almost every lens that I could possibly want already out there? If Canon makes a new 70-200EF lens, how many people will rush to buy it? I am thinking that most DSLR users who want/need a70-200 already have one. Maybe a new 70-200RF mount will actually do better. Interesting to think about though, and I thank you for that.

Leroy Moore

There is already a glut of Nikon and Canon DSLR lenses out there. The future for any camera system is to add strong computational abilities, just as the smartphones have excelled with.


Would a full frame GH5 change your mind about Panasonic (and L mount)?

mark norris

i recently started calling photographs the toilet paper of the internet , somebody recently said there are now officially one zillion internet photographs

mark norris
just like a species going extinct , at what point does apple phone and samsung phone etc , completely kill off all other camera form factors , at some diminishing level of sales the major camera manufacturers , nikon canon sony fuji etc , go bankrupt (extinct), when cell phone manufacturers control 99% of camera r&d money , at some point in camera evolution technology , cell phone camera technology becomes (professional) grade , where everybody has this pro technology in a cell phone , the perfection of miniaturization , if 99% of shooter already think cell phone cameras are… Read more »
Bolton Peck

So, is Leica going to stop making the L mount in a couple of years?

Rissa Sear

I hope DSLR cameras aren't dead or dying — I have too much money invested in lenses and my camera body.

Ted T
I think looking at general camera sales adds a ton of uncertainty. Have you tried looking at lens sales? in particular the sale of lenses that people that actually use their camera buy. First, if you look back 6 or 7 years ago (when the confounding impact of milc was basically zero) around 75% of dslr users used their camera as a point and shoot device . Considering the trajectory of smartphone and point and shoot camera sales I would guess very roughly 75% of all non phone camera sales are going to disappear. For what ever reason Canon is… Read more »
der Ryk1

People are tired of feeling like they must buy brand new cameras every 6 months so we are keeping what we have and are satisfied with that. So sales are not as frantic since people are becoming wise and not believing all the hype of "you need this brand new whats it if you don't get you are a loser".


Pentax and Olympus long ago figured out how to survive and thrive as niche players in the camera market. When was the last time Pentax cameras outsold Canon cameras, 1976? So if market share alone were determinative, Pentax would have folded up shop in the early 1990s. Same goes for Olympus. Same goes for Fujifilm.

Pentax is the Canada Dry of the camera world. Olympus is the Dr. Pepper. Sure, there are much bigger competitors in the marketplace. Sure, there are 10 flavors of Diet Coke (and 10 flavors of Canon lens mounts), but niche companies aren't going away anytime soon.

Derrick Jackson

The real comparison here is HDTV. It took HDTV over 20 year to replace standard definition TV because it required a change/upgrade in hardware. The bottom line is that mirror-less will get here but it is going to take time.



No, anyone who would buy a Sony mirrorless camera already has. The same cant be said for Canon and Nikon. Sony is at it's peak market share for the mirrorless market right now.